Scientific Center of Innovative Research, International Conference on Corporation Management-2025

Font Size: 
FINANCIAL PROGRAMMING AND THE CORPORATE SECTOR ANALYSIS
Iryna Radionova


Abstract


This study is devoted to the scientific problem of the financial programming tools using to assess the corporate sector of the economy. The hypothesis of the study is the assumption that the management of the corporate sector of the national economy may be based on financial programming tools. The purpose of the study is to provide a rationale for the analysis of the corporate sector using financial programming toolkit.

The methodology of macroeconomic dependencies based on the accounts of four macroeconomic sectors, namely: the real sector, the external sector, the financial sector, and the monetary sector has been applied.

Financial programming of the national economy is a special toolkit for analyzing and forecasting the economy. As it is known, this toolkit was developed and actively used by the IMF for the creation of stabilization programs to support some national economies [1, 2, 3] The financial programming toolkit also can be used by national governments to substantiate national macroeconomic policy.

The key objectives of financial programming are :

- assessing the current state of the national economy, based on the main accounts of macroeconomic sectors;

- forecasting necessary changes in macroeconomic parameters, taking into account existing balances (imbalances);

- forming macroeconomic policy, namely: determining possible macroeconomic goals (employment, price level, growth rates, stability of the national currency, etc.) and the necessary resources to achieve this goals.

The quintessence of financial programming is the accounts of macroeconomic sectors, which can be presented by the following macroeconomic identities and financial flows table.

Information about the quantitative values of the macroeconomic variables, presented in the equations below, is available from official statistical sources.

The identities of the macroeconomic sectors are as follows:

Real sector identities (information source – System of National Accounts):

YGNDI = (СN + IN) + NX + NFY + NTR

SN – IN = CAB

External sector identities (information source – country’s balance of payments):

САВ + КАВ= FABа + ΔRes

Financial sector identities (General Government) (information source – state budget balance):

TotRev – TotExp = SG – IG

-(SG – IG) = ΔNFBG + ΔNDBG

Monetary sector identities (information source – Monetary Sector Review):

BM = NFA + NDA

NFA = Res + NFAKB

Where YGND is a gross national disposable income; СN , IN , SN are, respectively, the national consumption, investment, savings; CAB, КAB – respectively, the current account balance and the capital account balance of the national balance of payments; FABа , ΔRes – respectively, the financial account balance of the national balance of payments (excluding official reserve assets) and changes in the reserve assets of the central bank; TotRev, TotExp – respectively, total government revenue and total expenditure; SG, IG – respectively, government saving and government investment, ΔNFBG, ΔNDBG – respectively, changes in the net foreign borrowing of the central government and changes in the net domestic borrowing of the central government; BM – broad money; NFA, NDA – respectively, net foreign assets and net domestic assets; Res – official reserve assets of the central bank; NFAKB – net foreigne assets of the commercial banks.

The identities of the four macroeconomic sectors indicate the existence of macroeconomic variables that link these sectors and make the national economy a holistic system. Such linked macroeconomic variables are, in particular, CAB, Res, gap (S-I), etc.

Based on the accounts of four macroeconomic sectors, a financial flow table can be formed. Financial flow table illustrates the connections between sectors. It makes it possible to predict the consequences of changes in one of the sectors of the national economy for other sectors. In particular, this may be the consequences of an increase in TotExp in the financial sector for the real sector, the external sector and the monetary sector of the economy. These may also be the consequences of changes in the balance of the country's current account for the real sector of the economy, the financial sector and the monetary sector, etc.

Corporate sector impact on the economy through the system macroeconomic dependencies can be assessed, first of all, in terms of its contribution to the macroeconomic variable YGNDI.

In particular, information about the financial corporations sector and the non-financial corporations sector can be obtained from the accounts of the institutional sectors.

The “Use of disposable income account” contains information that allows to assess the contribution of both corporate sectors – financial and non-financial corporations to:

- YGNDI production,

- national saving.

The “Capital account” contains information to assess the contribution of corporate sectors to:

- gross fixed capital formation,

- consumption of fixed capital,

- net lending (+) or net borrowing (-)

Using the data of the System of National Accounts of Ukraine for 2014-2021 [4], we can state the following: the non-financial corporations sector was a source of net lending to the economy for two years (2017 and 2018). The financial corporations sector was a source of net lending for three years (2015, 2020, 2021) during this period.

The corporate sector analysis sector can be continued based on data from the state budget table, balance of payments and Monetary Sector Review.

Conclusion: analysis of the corporate sector using financial programming toolkit makes it possible to assess its actual state and predict its impact on macroeconomic proportions (balances) in the process macroeconomic policy implementation.


Keywords


corporate sector, financial programming, macroeconomic sectors

References


  1. Financial Programming and Policies. Volume I. Institute for Capacity Development. IMF Institute . URL: https://courses.edx.org/asset-v1:IMFx+FPP.1x+1T2017+type@asset+block@FPP1x_Manual.pdf
  2. Financial programing and policies. Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa  URL: https://mefmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/FINANCIAL-PROGRAMMING-AND-POLICIES-MANUAL-FPP.pdf
  3. United Nations. Handbook on Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables with Extensions and Applications. United Nations Publication. New York. 2018. URL: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/SUT_IOT_HB_Final_Cover.pdf
  4. National Accounts of Ukraine. State Statistics Service of Ukraine 2021.  URL: https://ukrstat.gov.ua/druk/publicat/kat_u/2023/02/NR_2021.pdf